06 — The Science
Forest mind is evidence-based. Here's the evidence.
Climate Projections
The northeastern United States is warming faster than the global average. Temperature records, phenological data, range-shift observations, and climate model ensembles are all pointing in the same direction. The projections differ in magnitude depending on how aggressively the global economy reduces emissions — but they do not differ in direction. The forest is already responding, and the management choices made in the next 20 years will determine whether that response is managed or chaotic.
What models project for the northeastern US by 2100: temperatures +3 to 10°F above the late-twentieth-century baseline, more annual precipitation overall, but distributed differently — more intense rain events, less snowpack, longer summer dry spells between storms. More severe wind and ice events. A longer frost-free growing season — already measurably longer than in 1970 — that extends both spring and fall but also increases evapotranspiration demand during summer. The net effect on water availability in forests is negative despite more precipitation on paper.
These projections aren't predictions of doom. They're the conditions we're tending within. Forest mind starts with accepting what's measurably true.
Source: IPCC AR6 · NOAA National Climate Assessment · Northeast Regional Climate Center. Values represent median projections above 1986–2015 baseline for the northeastern US.
Species Vulnerability Assessment
Not all trees face the same future. The USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas models projected habitat suitability for over 130 northeastern tree species under different warming scenarios. The table below summarizes the most relevant species on this property and in this region — the ones whose presence, decline, or expansion will shape what this forest looks like in 50 years.
This table is the basis for every management decision on the property. Tending means knowing which members of the community are struggling and why. Species rated Poor for climate adaptation aren't being written off — they're being tended with particular attention, because their decline would change everything around them. But the planting program also reflects this table: the species being added to the understory and gap planting are weighted toward those with Good or Fair adaptation trajectories.
| Species | Climate Adaptation | Storm | Drought | Pest / Disease | Regeneration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Maple Acer rubrum | |||||
| Sugar Maple Acer saccharum | |||||
| White Ash Fraxinus americana | |||||
| Red Oak Quercus rubra | |||||
| Sweet Birch Betula lenta | |||||
| Red Pine Pinus resinosa | |||||
| American Beech Fagus grandifolia | |||||
| Black Cherry Prunus serotina | |||||
| Yellow Birch Betula alleghaniensis | |||||
| Eastern Hemlock Tsuga canadensis | |||||
| White Pine Pinus strobus |
Carbon Accounting
A mature northeastern hardwood forest stores roughly 150–200 tons of carbon per acre across all its pools — above-ground biomass, roots, dead wood, forest floor litter, and soil organic matter. Soil is typically the largest pool, and the least understood. Above-ground biomass is the most visible and the most frequently measured. All of it matters. All of it can be lost faster than it was gained.
The distinction between sequestration and storage matters. Young forests sequester carbon rapidly — a 20-year-old stand might fix 1.5–2.0 tons of carbon per acre per year. Old forests sequester much more slowly, sometimes near zero annually, because growth and decomposition are roughly balanced. But old forests store vastly more carbon in total, and that stored carbon took a century or more to accumulate. When an old-growth forest is logged, decades of sequestration are needed to return to the same stock — and the soil carbon lost in the disturbance may never fully return.
Carbon is the language the rest of the world uses to talk about forests. Forest mind knows the forest is more than its carbon — but it also knows that speaking this language opens doors that need opening.
Estimated carbon storage for 80–100 year mixed hardwood forest, northeastern US
Trunks, limbs, and crowns. Young forests accumulate fast; old forests accumulate slowly but hold more total stock.
Coarse and fine roots. Typically 25–30% of above-ground biomass. Fine roots turn over continuously, feeding soil carbon.
Standing dead trees and fallen logs. Wildlife habitat and a slow-release carbon input to the soil as decomposition proceeds.
The O horizon — fresh and partially decomposed leaf litter. Highly sensitive to warming; decomposition accelerates as temperatures rise.
The largest pool and the least visible. Accumulated over centuries. Highly vulnerable to disturbance — tillage, compaction, and warming can release it rapidly.
Monitoring Protocols
Monitoring is tending with a clipboard. It's the practice of returning to the same places, asking the same questions, and being honest about what's changed. Without it, management is guesswork; with it, every decision builds on evidence accumulated over time. The protocols below are being established on this property and are documented as a template other landowners could adapt.
The goal is not comprehensive scientific monitoring — this isn't a research station. The goal is informed tending: enough data, taken consistently enough, to understand whether the management choices being made are working. Change is the thing to measure. Baseline is what makes change visible.
Fixed camera positions at 12 locations across the property — canopy gaps, forest edges, stream corridor, road cuts. Photographed quarterly (or at key seasonal moments) from the same bearing and elevation. The resulting time series makes canopy closure, invasive spread, gap regrowth, and understory change visually legible across years.
Quarterly · 12 stationsSix permanent circular plots (1/5 acre each), distributed across the major forest types on the property. Each plot records: species and diameter of all stems above 2-inch DBH, tree condition, crown class, and regeneration species/density. Re-measured every 5 years. This data drives the forest management plan and tracks growth rates, mortality, and regeneration success over time.
Every 5 years · 6 plotsAnnual GPS-based mapping of all known invasive plant populations: multiflora rose, bittersweet, garlic mustard, Japanese knotweed, barberry, and others. Polygon boundaries are updated each year to track spread or retreat in response to control efforts. The map layer integrates with the management plan — active control zones are prioritized based on spread rate and proximity to high-value habitat.
Annual survey · GPS mappedAnnual breeding bird surveys (May–June) following point-count protocol at 8 fixed stations, timed to correspond with Breeding Bird Atlas grid coverage. Deer browse pressure assessed by paired plot comparison (exclosed vs. open) at regeneration monitoring points. Ad hoc documentation of other wildlife sign — trail camera data from 3 permanent stations — maintained in a shared log accessible to future stewards of the property.
Annual · 8 survey pointsContinuous stream temperature logging at two stations on the main stream channel — one in open canopy, one under intact forest cover — using submersible data loggers. Spot measurements of flow volume during seasonal low-flow periods, turbidity and visual clarity assessments after major storm events. Stream temperature is among the most sensitive indicators of canopy health and a direct driver of cold-water fisheries habitat quality.
Continuous logging · 2 stationsResources
Forest mind is not proprietary. Everything we've learned, we learned from sources like these. Here they are.
Modeled habitat suitability for 134 tree species across the eastern US under multiple climate scenarios. The primary basis for regional species vulnerability assessment. Searchable by species or by geographic area.
nrs.fs.usda.gov/atlasComprehensive survey of all breeding bird species in Massachusetts, mapped by grid block. The 2011–2015 second atlas allows direct comparison with the 1974–1979 first atlas — making range shifts, population changes, and habitat associations visible at the block level over 40 years.
massaudubon.org/bird-atlasStatewide spatial data on biodiversity, core habitat, critical natural landscape, and rare species occurrences. The essential tool for understanding a parcel's conservation significance and connectivity in the regional landscape. Queryable by address or parcel.
mass.gov/biomapA practical forestry guide for private woodland owners in the northeastern US, written explicitly through a climate adaptation lens. Covers species selection, harvest timing, regeneration, invasive management, and working with a licensed forester. Written for people who own land and want to manage it thoughtfully.
uvm.edu/extension/nrfwSpecies-level data on invasive plants across the New England region: distribution, ecology, identification, and management. Includes searchable occurrence records and management guidance for each species. The starting point for any invasive plant control program in this region.
eddmaps.org/ipaneAll of these tools are publicly available and free. The knowledge that should be shaping land management decisions in the northeastern US is not behind a paywall — it's just not being used at the scale it needs to be. That gap is part of what this project exists to close.